Third Quarter 2023 Review and Outlook

Regime Change. The S&P 500® Index fell by about 3% in the third quarter. Most other American stock indices fared similarly. This came after a ripping first half which saw the S&P 500® gain 16%. Often, when there’s an abrupt about-face in markets, analysts struggle to craft narratives that explain these turns. But no tortured narrative has been needed to explain this shift. The market’s recent swoon, which began late in the third quarter, can be traced directly to a sharp jump in U.S. interest rates.

Download Commentary